The Succession Crisis

What argufies pride and ambition? Soon or late death will take us in tow: Each bullet has got its commission, and when our time's come, we must go.”

Porfirio Diaz, military dictator of Mexico from 1876-1911

There has been a spectre haunting the Trump administration: the spectre of succession. Many “keen” political observers might scoff at this statement, despite the events unfolding before their eyes. Such observers likely believe that the future of the GOP is as clear as crystal. Trump will peacefully step away from power, or will be forced out by his former allies abandoning him due to his record-low polling numbers. J. D. Vance has made it clear he is deft at maneuvering between the various factions whose combined support makes up the Republican coalition. He schmoozes with the right oligarchs, appears on the right white nationalist podcasts, and pretends to believe in God like the best of them. Certainly, Vance could leverage his position as Vice President to silence any future upstarts who might try to march ahead of the conservative parade so that they could call themselves its leader. Surely, either Vance or whatever neoliberal ghoul the Democrats put up will waltz right back into executive authority. Haven’t you heard? Nothing ever happens.

The series of events laid out above might likely come to pass. The point of this piece is not to claim that such a thing would be impossible. But I think the immediate future of the regime, and how Trump plans to deal with his own exit, remains remarkably murky. It is this murkiness that demands attention from those communists who genuinely seek political power. The field of possibility is more open than it has been in many decades. There is a distinct chance for revolutionary political struggle surrounding the transition of presidential power in 2028 and 2029.

This is not to say that a communist must win the Democratic Party’s presidential primary in 2028. Nor is it to say that communists are the only faction that could take advantage of such a political struggle. I only mean to make the point that there is a far more likely chance that bourgeois democracy is extinguished due to the deluded and fearful actions of the Republican Party and Donald Trump then many allow. The smothering of whatever little meaningless power is afforded to “the people” under the current system could prove an invaluable opportunity for a true democratic revolution to come to America. And once the gods of revolution have been summoned, doors that were once bolted shut shall swing wide open. Realities of dual power, of overthrowing the Constitution, of proletarian war against the bourgeoisie come into existence where before they were but the feverish fantasies of activists.

I want to discuss a series of possible paths that the next few years may take. The actions of communists must be, of course, reactive to such events. I am not a fortune teller, and nor am I, at this moment, able to best determine how devoted communists might insert their program into the whirlwind of political chaos that could arise from some of the more dramatic possibilities I wish to lay out below.  I simply want those interested in communism winning to consider the times we live in and what might be done in times such as these.

Revolution takes many preconditions to manifest. It can manifest in innumerable different ways. Perhaps, no matter what happens, the material conditions are not ripe for a revolution of any sort. Perhaps people are too blind to the suffering at home and abroad to ever consider radical political actions of any kind. Perhaps the forces and institutions of democratic revolution, let alone the forces and institutions of proletarian revolution, are simply too weak and unorganized to properly seize such a political initiative. Perhaps the reactionary propaganda apparatus and power structures remain too strong. Perhaps all is already lost…

But if there was ever any hope for communism, it must be assumed that this is not the case. Granting the leap that the revolutionary pre-conditions are so met, the question remains: how might a direct revolutionary trigger be pulled? In this context, a revolutionary trigger can be defined as the event or series of events that directly lead to a class seizing political power outside the normal pre-existing system of power relations. The flight of King Louis to Varennes. The rigging of the Mexican election of 1910. The Bloody Sunday Massacre of 1905. The French, Mexican, and Russian Revolutions required much more than these singular events to come into being but they only actually came into being following these events. The king has abandoned us to rally his Austrian relations to invade and conquer his own people! Porfirio Diaz has reneged on his promise to step down after decades in power and intends to remain in office! The supposedly just and good father of the nation, the Tsar, has slaughtered priests and workers in the street, all for trying to beg for better conditions! It was these events that took potential revolutionary energy and transformed it into kinetic revolutionary energy. These triggers have in common that they demand an obvious plan of action for the revolutionary class to follow that appears to have no alternative. King Louis must be deposed and a Republic declared. The Tsar must be overthrown, now.

Triggers take a unique form in every revolution. Often it is impossible to predict their coming. Sometimes a street vendor simply lights themselves on fire and a whole region is set ablaze. But other times, as with Mexico, the issue can be seen from a mile away. Porfirio Diaz kicked the can of succession down the road as far as he could punt. He refused to appoint his popular supporter, Bernardo Reyes, as his Vice President, fearing his own star would be eclipsed. He lied to the world in the Creelman interview that he would not run for re-election in 1910, inspiring liberal democrats like Francisco Madero to throw their hats into the ring. When Diaz reneged, he left Madero and his supporters looking like fools for ever thinking they had a shot to dislodge the Porfiriato. To oversimplify, Madero’s supporters—figures like Pancho Villa and Emiliano Zapata, and the masses they represented—took up arms in response and won. Before the election of 1910 was rigged, the possibilities of radicals ever seizing power in Mexico seemed impossible. After it was rigged, it became inevitable. Simple as.

The 2028 American reality bears an eerie similarity to the Mexican one of 1910. There are innumerable differences, of course. Material conditions in North America have shifted radically over the past century. Mexican political history up to 1910 is, in most ways, very distinct from the USA’s up to the present. So too for the class antagonisms that make up each society. Yet, the idiocy of the current cabal occupying the Federal government might force a similarly drastic outcome—and perhaps the most idiotic and drastic possibility is Trump illegally attempting to stay in power beyond his Constitutional mandate. Trump has refused to state his future plans outright. It’s possible he hasn’t yet decided what to do. It’s possible, fickle and demented as he is, that he may yet change his mind. He has, however, been selling “third term merch” for months at this point. He has, in proper Caesarean fashion, allowed his allies to raise the possibility of him being lifted to a station higher than permitted to him under the current Constitutional regime. Billionaire donors like Miriam Adelson and nationalist provocateurs like Steve Bannon have expressed their direct and open support for such a plan.

Trump has always been a drama hound, and has seemingly enjoyed pitting his various wannabe successors against one another. He has certainly not endorsed any one sycophant over any other. And, perhaps most crucially, Trump has already demonstrated a willingness to carry out a violent coup to maintain his elderly grip on his office. Maya Angelou: “When people show you who they are, believe them the first time.”  Applying this lesson to January 6th then seems to indicate a certainty that this senile pedophile will not allow a Democrat to take office. He will not allow himself to become re-endangered by criminal investigation and prosecution. He will not allow his corrupt gains to possibly be seized by a newly empowered Democratic president. He will not stand for one of his hated enemies occupying the newly built Trump ballroom. He will not be humiliated. The Presidency is his, and his alone.

Trump running for a third term openly or allowing a fake election to play out before declaring the results invalid and daring anyone to displace him, is perhaps, the platonic ideal for a Democratic Revolution to take place. The whole nation, bourgeois and proletarian alike, will be faced with a choice: shall they allow power to be taken away from them forever? Will the state become a simple plaything for a small handful of CEOs and military generals? Or shall the people, with all their might, drive out the tyrant? The constitution would lie broken and malformed at the feet of Americans, and the only answer would be revolution. And should such a revolution be successful, a line will be firmly drawn for a class war. The liberal bourgeoise will seek to turn such a triumph into a tool to “reform” the democracy so that their collective rule may endure for all of time. None of the proletariat’s concerns will be addressed by them. They will be used as cannon fodder and then discarded. The imperialism will continue apace. Racism, sexism, and homophobia will remain rampant. The owners will continue to own everything. There will never be a better time for the American proletariat to develop revolutionary structures and consciousness of its own.

There is also the possibility of Vance, or any other Republican, attempting to institute a post-Trump dictatorship. If Trump finally perishes of natural causes, or if he feels comfortable enough that his successor will protect him and his ill-got wealth and status at all costs, he may cede control of the party over to his Vice President (or whoever else emerges from the cesspit of the 2028 Republican primary). The Republican Party and its leaders have followed Trump full-throatedly into the abyss of open corruption, election-rigging, and fascistic rhetoric. They are just as vulnerable to the hypothetical prosecutions levied by a revenge-minded future Justice Department.

Although some Republicans have shown some willingness to back down from the cliff of total absolutism, as seen in Indiana, J. D. Vance remains dead set on branding his enemies killers and demons. The right-wing media remains at a fever pitch, always casting “the Left” as the source of America’s problems. Every cabinet official has participated in or facilitated war crimes. Just ask Pete Hegseth. Every cabinet official has participated in or facilitated corruption on a scale that dwarfs all previous examples of American corruption. Just ask Howard Lutnick. Every cabinet official has participated in or facilitated the wanton disregard of the individual rights supposedly guaranteed by the Constitution. Just ask Kristie Noem. These are men and women who have reasons to fear losing power. They have all the world to keep, and their own lives and fortunes to lose.

It is not crazy to imagine J. D. Vance refusing to certify the election of 2028 should he lose. It is not hard to imagine Trump refusing to recognize the victory of a Democrat over the successor chosen by him and his supporters. The possibility of political revolution in this instance is likely tempered by how “legitimate” the Republican victory seems. If the Republican truly and “fairly” wins such a democratic revolution will likely prove impossible. If the election is a close or clear Democratic victory, or if the administration’s actions are perceived as a blatant attempt to silence opposition, then the entire world of revolution may open up to us.

Of course, as I stated above, it is very possible that neither of these realities will come to pass. Maybe Trump will step down. Maybe Vance or any other Republican candidate will win “fair and square” or cede power to the Democrats. But there remains a tangible possibility that this does not come to pass. There is a distinct chance that the spiral of illegality that Trump and his cronies indulge in regularly will culminate in one last hurrah to kill democracy once and for all.  We must stand ready to meet this possibility with a program of our own. We must encourage and join in a mass democratic revolution by the whole nation.

And should such democratic revolution triumph we must, to the extent that it is possible, lead the proletariat to carry and continue the revolution forward to its fullest expression.